Rising Rhetorical Battle Among Ethiopian Government and Eritrean Government Raises Fears of Military Confrontation

Increasing concerns are present about the possibility of warfare among East African neighbors, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as aggressive rhetoric has escalated in recent weeks.

Horn of Africa region
The Ethiopian government and Eritrea were allies in the internal conflict in Tigray but they have since fallen out.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for entry to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has sparked a heated war of words.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in last year that his nation's sea access was an existential matter, statements that Eritrea ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the neighboring nations have regularly been difficult. Following a prolonged battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving it landlocked.

Subsequently, a border war started in which numerous people died.

Latest Statements from Ethiopian Government

Abiy and military leader the army commander have publicly asserted control of Eritrea's coastal city of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and implied the desire to take it by force.

Recently, Abiy said the country's "mistake" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrea's separation would be "addressed tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrea's Answer to the Threats

In the face of ongoing challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been limited to concise remarks on social media from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry describing it as "risky" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a approach of claiming back lost territory.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on 16 September that moves to validate "flagrant aggression" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Activities on the Ground

So far, there are little evidence of major military movements in the frontier regions between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, state television has shown graduation ceremonies of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The director of personnel division of the military, the officer, stated recently in an discussion that the army was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Past Origins of the Conflict

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, the territory was administered by Italian rulers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the British military before evolving into a associated territory of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this system and Eritrea became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year internal conflict occurred, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Independence was then confirmed by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, leading to war in 1998.

Even though this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries continued at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two endorsed a announcement that the conflict was over – a move that gained Abiy the prestigious award.

The two governments were then allies in the country's recent armed struggle in Tigray.

Yet diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated anew.

Molly Peters
Molly Peters

Digital marketing strategist with a decade of experience in data-driven campaigns and brand growth.