Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
